Chance Liga (Czech Republic) · Sun, Oct 25 · 14:00 · AC Sparta Praha vs 1. FC Slovácko
Likeliest: AC Sparta Praha win · 76%
Likely score: 2–0
A 76% home win. The market says 72%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Sparta Praha76%72%+4
OursMarket
Draw15%17%−2
OursMarket
1. FC Slovácko9%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 24% | 28% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 87% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Sparta Praha
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · at Baník Ostrava (A)0-0
- Oct 15 · v Lillestrøm SK (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · v FK Pardubice (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at SK Sigma Olomouc (A)3-0
- Sep 16 · at FC Ararat-Armenia (A)4-1
1. FC Slovácko
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 18 · v FC Zbrojovka Brno (H)1-2
- Oct 11 · at FC Slovan Liberec (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Baník Ostrava (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · at FK Neratovice-Byškovice (A)4-0
- Sep 12 · at Bohemians Praha 1905 (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | AC Sparta Praha | 1. FC Slovácko |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-1 | 3-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.