Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · AC Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm SK
Likeliest: AC Sparta Praha win · 72%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 69%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Sparta Praha72%69%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%19%−1
OursMarket
Lillestrøm SK11%12%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 88% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 31% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Sparta Praha
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · v FK Pardubice (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at SK Sigma Olomouc (A)3-0
- Sep 16 · at FC Ararat-Armenia (A)4-1
- Sep 12 · v FK Jablonec (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · at FC Hradec Králové (A)1-2
Lillestrøm SK
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 11 · v Molde FK (H)2-2
- Oct 1 · at Bærum SK (A)5-1
- Sep 20 · at Viking FK (A)0-3
- Sep 17 · v Torreense (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Vålerenga IF (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | AC Sparta Praha | Lillestrøm SK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-1 | 3-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.