Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Aug 4 · 18:00 · AC Sparta Praha vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: AC Sparta Praha win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 29%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AC Sparta Praha51%29%+22
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais23%45%−22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 58% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 55% | +22 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 71% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 40% | +29 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AC Sparta Praha
WinLossWin
- Jul 31 · v FC Zlín (H)3-1
- Jul 25 · at FC Zbrojovka Brno (A)1-3
- May 24 · v FC Hradec Králové (H)2-1
Olympique Lyonnais
WinWinWinLossLoss
- May 17 · v Lens (H)0-4
- May 10 · at Toulouse (A)1-2
- May 3 · v Rennes (H)4-2
- Apr 25 · v Auxerre (H)3-2
- Apr 19 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | AC Sparta Praha | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 60% |
| Both teams scored | — | 50% |
| Clean sheets | — | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.