División Profesional (Bolivia) · Fri, Oct 16 · 19:00 · Academia del Balompié Boliviano vs Real Potosí
Likeliest: Real Potosí win · 38%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Academia del Balompié Boliviano35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Real Potosí38%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Academia del Balompié Boliviano
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Oriente Petrolero (A)0-1
- Sep 15 · v The Strongest (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Blooming (A)1-6
- Sep 4 · v FC Universitario de Vinto (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · at Bolívar (A)1-4
Real Potosí
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · v The Strongest (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · at CDT Real Oruro (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Oriente Petrolero (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Guabirá (A)1-1
- Aug 26 · v CD Real Tomayapo (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Academia del Balompié Boliviano | Real Potosí |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-3 | 3-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.