División Profesional (Bolivia) · Tue, Sep 15 · 21:15 · Academia del Balompié Boliviano vs The Strongest
Likeliest: The Strongest win · 48%
A 48% away win. The market says 42%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Academia del Balompié Boliviano29%33%−5
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
The Strongest48%42%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 67% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 44% | −7 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Academia del Balompié Boliviano
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 12 · at Blooming (A)1-6
- Sep 4 · v FC Universitario de Vinto (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · at Bolívar (A)1-4
- Aug 22 · v GV San José (H)2-2
- Aug 16 · at Nacional Potosí (A)0-2
The Strongest
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 12 · v CDT Real Oruro (H)5-0
- Sep 6 · v CD Real Tomayapo (H)3-1
- Aug 26 · at San Antonio Bulo-Bulo (A)3-0
- Aug 21 · v FC Universitario de Vinto (H)4-3
- Aug 15 · at Guabirá (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Academia del Balompié Boliviano | The Strongest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.