Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn
Likeliest: Deportivo Madryn win · 35%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 48% for both teams to score. The market says 44%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Acassuso30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw35%32%+3
OursMarket
Deportivo Madryn35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 36% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 44% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Acassuso
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 10 · at Defensores de Belgrano (A)3-0
- Oct 3 · v Ciudad de Bolivar (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Almirante Brown (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Mitre (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · at Estudiantes de Buenos Aires (A)0-1
Deportivo Madryn
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v Chaco For Ever (H)1-2
- Oct 2 · at Club Ferro Carril Oeste (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Central Norte de Salta (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Racing de Córdoba (H)2-0
- Sep 14 · at Defensores de Belgrano (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Acassuso | Deportivo Madryn |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-4 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.