League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham
Likeliest: Accrington Stanley win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Accrington Stanley39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Gillingham34%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Accrington Stanley
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · at Oldham Athletic (A)0-0
- Oct 6 · v Salford City (H)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Cheltenham Town (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Swindon Town (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Sunderland U21 (H)3-3
Gillingham
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 13 · v Brighton & Hove Albion U21 (H)4-3
- Oct 10 · at Rotherham United (A)4-1
- Oct 3 · v Newport County (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at York City (A)0-3
- Sep 22 · v Cambridge United (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | Accrington Stanley | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.