Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:00 · Accrington Stanley vs Salford City
Likeliest: Salford City win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 70% for both teams to score. The market says 61%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Accrington Stanley27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Salford City46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 56% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 61% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 41% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Accrington Stanley
LossDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 3 · v Cheltenham Town (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Swindon Town (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Sunderland U21 (H)3-3
- Sep 19 · v Newport County (H)0-0
- Sep 12 · at Barnet (A)1-2
Salford City
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Oct 3 · v Fleetwood Town (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Oldham Athletic (A)4-1
- Sep 22 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Swindon Town (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Rotherham United (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | Accrington Stanley | Salford City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.