La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Aug 22 · 17:00 · AD Ceuta vs Las Palmas
Likeliest: AD Ceuta win · 54%
We make it 64% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AD Ceuta54%31%+24
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−6
OursMarket
Las Palmas22%40%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 45% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 60% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 69% | −24 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 43% | +28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AD Ceuta
WinWinLoss
- Aug 15 · at FC Andorra (A)1-5
- May 30 · v Albacete Balompié (H)1-0
- May 24 · at FC Andorra (A)2-0
Las Palmas
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Aug 16 · v Albacete Balompié (H)2-1
- Jun 10 · at Málaga (A)1-1
- Jun 7 · v Málaga (H)0-1
- May 31 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)2-1
- May 24 · v Real Zaragoza (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | AD Ceuta | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 60% |
| Both teams scored | — | 80% |
| Clean sheets | — | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.