La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:00 · AD Ceuta vs Real Oviedo
Likeliest: Real Oviedo win · 42%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AD Ceuta27%31%−4
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+2
OursMarket
Real Oviedo42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 69% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AD Ceuta
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · v CE Sabadell (H)1-2
- Oct 4 · at CD Castellón (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Real Sociedad B (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Real Valladolid (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Burgos Club de Fútbol (A)1-3
Real Oviedo
WinLossWinLossWin
- Oct 12 · v Eibar (H)3-1
- Oct 2 · at CD Eldense (A)1-4
- Sep 27 · v Sporting Gijón (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at CE Sabadell (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Real Valladolid (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | AD Ceuta | Real Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.