La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Sep 20 · 14:15 · AD Ceuta vs Real Valladolid
Likeliest: Real Valladolid win · 36%
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AD Ceuta34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Real Valladolid36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AD Ceuta
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 11 · at Burgos Club de Fútbol (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Celta Vigo B (H)0-2
- Aug 30 · at Mallorca (A)0-3
- Aug 22 · v Las Palmas (H)0-2
- Aug 15 · at FC Andorra (A)1-5
Real Valladolid
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 13 · v Real Oviedo (H)0-3
- Sep 5 · v FC Andorra (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Cádiz (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Eibar (A)0-1
- Aug 15 · at Mallorca (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | AD Ceuta | Real Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-0-5 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.