Liga 1 (Peru) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · ADC Juan Pablo II vs Sport Boys
Likeliest: ADC Juan Pablo II win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
ADC Juan Pablo II51%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Sport Boys24%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
ADC Juan Pablo II
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Comerciantes Unidos (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v CD Moquegua (H)4-0
- Sep 11 · at Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Alianza Lima (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Los Chankas CYC (A)4-3
Sport Boys
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · v Alianza Atlético de Sullana (H)1-3
- Sep 20 · at Melgar (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Deportivo Garcilaso (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Sport Huancayo (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Club Sporting Cristal (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | ADC Juan Pablo II | Sport Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | 1-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.