Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Mon, Apr 6 · 14:45 · ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven
Likeliest: ADO Den Haag win · 60%
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
ADO Den Haag60%69%−9
OursMarket
Draw21%18%+3
OursMarket
FC Eindhoven19%13%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 67% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 87% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 31% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 82% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 84% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
ADO Den Haag
LossWinWinWinWin
- Apr 3 · v Jong Ajax (H)4-2
- Mar 22 · at De Graafschap (A)2-1
- Mar 17 · v Jong FC Utrecht (H)1-0
- Mar 13 · at FC Emmen (A)1-0
- Mar 7 · at Almere City (A)0-1
FC Eindhoven
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Apr 3 · v De Graafschap (H)2-2
- Mar 28 · v FC Emmen (H)1-0
- Mar 20 · at TOP Oss (A)1-2
- Mar 13 · at Jong PSV (A)2-1
- Mar 6 · v Jong Ajax (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | ADO Den Haag | FC Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.