Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Aug 16 · 10:15 · ADO Den Haag vs FC Groningen
Likeliest: ADO Den Haag win · 68%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
ADO Den Haag68%34%+33
OursMarket
Draw20%26%−6
OursMarket
FC Groningen13%40%−27
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 58% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 60% | +27 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 66% | −33 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 74% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 46% | +38 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
ADO Den Haag
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Aug 8 · at AZ Alkmaar (A)0-2
- Apr 24 · at FC Den Bosch (A)3-1
- Apr 17 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)5-1
- Apr 12 · at FC Dordrecht (A)0-1
- Apr 6 · v FC Eindhoven (H)4-0
FC Groningen
LossWinWinLossWin
- Aug 9 · v FC Utrecht (H)2-1
- May 21 · at Ajax (A)0-2
- May 17 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-1
- May 10 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)2-1
- May 2 · v Excelsior (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | ADO Den Haag | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.