Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Sep 6 · 14:45 · ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard
Likeliest: ADO Den Haag win · 63%
A 63% home win. The market says 46%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
ADO Den Haag63%46%+17
OursMarket
Draw20%24%−4
OursMarket
Fortuna Sittard17%30%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 67% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 66% | −12 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 70% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 54% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 60% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
ADO Den Haag
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Aug 30 · at Feyenoord (A)2-2
- Aug 23 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)1-3
- Aug 16 · v FC Groningen (H)1-4
- Aug 8 · at AZ Alkmaar (A)0-2
- Apr 24 · at FC Den Bosch (A)3-1
Fortuna Sittard
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Aug 28 · at FC Groningen (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)0-2
- Aug 15 · v SC Cambuur (H)3-1
- Aug 8 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)2-2
- May 17 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | ADO Den Haag | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.