Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Apr 3 · 18:00 · ADO Den Haag vs Jong Ajax
Likeliest: ADO Den Haag win · 65%
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 28%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
ADO Den Haag65%81%−16
OursMarket
Draw20%12%+8
OursMarket
Jong Ajax15%7%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 72% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 50% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 93% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 19% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 88% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 92% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
ADO Den Haag
WinLossWinWinWin
- Mar 22 · at De Graafschap (A)2-1
- Mar 17 · v Jong FC Utrecht (H)1-0
- Mar 13 · at FC Emmen (A)1-0
- Mar 7 · at Almere City (A)0-1
- Feb 27 · v VVV-Venlo (H)1-0
Jong Ajax
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 20 · v Almere City (H)0-2
- Mar 17 · at VVV-Venlo (A)1-0
- Mar 13 · v FC Den Bosch (H)3-2
- Mar 6 · at FC Eindhoven (A)1-2
- Feb 27 · v Helmond Sport (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | ADO Den Haag | Jong Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.