Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:30 · ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven
Likeliest: PSV Eindhoven win · 81%
Likely score: 1–2
A 81% away win. The market says 76%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
ADO Den Haag6%10%−4
OursMarket
Draw13%14%−1
OursMarket
PSV Eindhoven81%76%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 19% | 24% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 94% | 90% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 88% | 86% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 7% | 12% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
ADO Den Haag
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · at SC Telstar (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v SC Cambuur (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at FC Twente (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · at Feyenoord (A)2-2
PSV Eindhoven
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 13 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-1
- Oct 9 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at FC Twente (A)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)4-1
- Sep 10 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | ADO Den Haag | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.