Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Apr 17 · 18:00 · ADO Den Haag vs RKC Waalwijk
Likeliest: ADO Den Haag win · 62%
A 62% home win. The market says 55%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
ADO Den Haag62%55%+7
OursMarket
Draw19%23%−4
OursMarket
RKC Waalwijk19%22%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 62% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 61% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 78% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 45% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 77% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 71% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
ADO Den Haag
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Apr 12 · at FC Dordrecht (A)0-1
- Apr 6 · v FC Eindhoven (H)4-0
- Apr 3 · v Jong Ajax (H)4-2
- Mar 22 · at De Graafschap (A)2-1
- Mar 17 · v Jong FC Utrecht (H)1-0
RKC Waalwijk
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Apr 10 · v FC Emmen (H)5-0
- Apr 6 · at Helmond Sport (A)2-2
- Apr 3 · at MVV Maastricht (A)3-1
- Mar 21 · v FC Den Bosch (H)2-3
- Mar 17 · at Almere City (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | ADO Den Haag | RKC Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.