Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Jan 16 · 19:00 · ADO Den Haag vs SC Cambuur
Likeliest: ADO Den Haag win · 48%
A 30% away win. The market says 22%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
ADO Den Haag48%56%−8
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
SC Cambuur30%22%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 64% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 62% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 78% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 44% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 72% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
ADO Den Haag
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Dec 19 · v Jong PSV (H)1-2
- Dec 12 · at TOP Oss (A)4-3
- Dec 5 · v FC Emmen (H)2-1
- Nov 28 · at VVV-Venlo (A)3-0
- Nov 25 · v De Graafschap (H)3-2
SC Cambuur
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Dec 19 · v MVV Maastricht (H)4-0
- Dec 12 · at Willem II (A)1-0
- Dec 5 · v FC Den Bosch (H)2-1
- Nov 28 · v Helmond Sport (H)0-0
- Nov 21 · v ADO Den Haag (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | ADO Den Haag | SC Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.