Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Oct 24 · 19:00 · ADO Den Haag vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: SC Heerenveen win · 48%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
ADO Den Haag27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen48%45%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 40% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
ADO Den Haag
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)2-1
- Oct 11 · at SC Telstar (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v SC Cambuur (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at FC Twente (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-3
SC Heerenveen
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 16 · v Excelsior (H)4-0
- Oct 9 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)4-0
- Sep 13 · v SC Telstar (H)0-0
- Sep 6 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | ADO Den Haag | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.