Super League (Greece) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:30 · AEK Athens vs OFI Crete
Likeliest: AEK Athens win · 80%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 80% for the home win. The market says 77%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AEK Athens80%77%+2
OursMarket
Draw14%15%−1
OursMarket
OFI Crete7%8%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 44% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 94% | 92% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 23% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 85% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 92% | 91% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AEK Athens
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 20 · at NPS Volos (A)2-1
- Sep 17 · v MGS Panserraikos (H)8-1
- Sep 13 · at Asteras Aktor (A)1-1
- Sep 8 · v LASK (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Aris Thessaloniki (H)5-0
OFI Crete
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 20 · v Asteras Aktor (H)2-2
- Sep 17 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Olympiacos FC (A)1-0
- Sep 9 · v AS Nestos Chrysoupolis (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · v AE Kifisia (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | AEK Athens | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 80% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.