First Division (Cyprus) · Sun, Sep 13 · 16:00 · AEK Larnaca vs Pafos FC
Likeliest: AEK Larnaca win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AEK Larnaca37%40%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+3
OursMarket
Pafos FC32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AEK Larnaca
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 6 · at Nea Salamina Famagusta (A)4-1
- Aug 29 · v APOEL Nicosia (H)3-1
- Jul 30 · at Beitar Jerusalem (A)3-2
- Jul 23 · v Beitar Jerusalem (H)0-0
- Mar 19 · v Crystal Palace (H)1-2
Pafos FC
DrawDrawDrawWinDraw
- Sep 7 · v Olympiakos Nicosia (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Karmiotissa Polemidion (A)3-0
- Aug 27 · v Dinamo City (H)2-2
- Aug 20 · at Dinamo City (A)1-1
- Aug 13 · v Red Bull Salzburg (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | AEK Larnaca | Pafos FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.