Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 19:00 · AFC Ajax vs Atalanta
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 43%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Ajax31%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Atalanta43%41%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Ajax
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 18 · at FC Groningen (A)4-1
- Oct 15 · at HNK Hajduk Split (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
- Sep 15 · v Willem II Tilburg (H)5-1
Atalanta
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at AC Milan (A)2-3
- Oct 15 · v Pafos FC (H)3-1
- Oct 12 · v Venezia (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Juventus (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | AFC Ajax | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.