Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Sep 19 · 18:00 · AFC Ajax vs Excelsior
Likeliest: AFC Ajax win · 78%
A tight one: we make it 78% for the home win. The market says 75%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Ajax78%75%+3
OursMarket
Draw13%15%−2
OursMarket
Excelsior9%10%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 90% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 22% | 25% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 88% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Ajax
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 15 · v Willem II Tilburg (H)5-1
- Sep 12 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)5-1
- Sep 5 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)1-3
- Aug 30 · at SC Telstar (A)4-0
- Aug 27 · v FC Sion (H)5-3
Excelsior
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 13 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-2
- Sep 8 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Willem II Tilburg (A)3-0
- Aug 29 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)2-1
- Aug 15 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | AFC Ajax | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.