Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 27 · 18:00 · AFC Ajax vs FC Sion
Likeliest: AFC Ajax win · 43%
A 33% away win. The market says 13%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Ajax43%69%−26
OursMarket
Draw25%18%+7
OursMarket
FC Sion33%13%+19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 68% | −31 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 87% | −19 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 31% | +26 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 82% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 84% | −27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Ajax
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Aug 20 · at FC Sion (A)4-2
- Aug 16 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-2
- Aug 13 · at Shelbourne (A)2-2
- Aug 9 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-0
- Aug 6 · v Shelbourne (H)3-1
FC Sion
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Aug 20 · v AFC Ajax (H)2-4
- Aug 13 · v FC Noah (H)2-1
- Aug 9 · v FC Vaduz (H)3-2
- Aug 6 · at FC Noah (A)2-2
- Aug 2 · v FC Luzern (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | AFC Ajax | FC Sion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 4-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 88% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 25% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.