Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Jul 30 · 18:00 · AFC Ajax vs FK Vojvodina
Likeliest: AFC Ajax win · 61%
A 19% away win. The market says 8%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Ajax61%79%−18
OursMarket
Draw20%13%+7
OursMarket
FK Vojvodina19%8%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 70% | −22 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 49% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 92% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 21% | +18 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 87% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 91% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Ajax
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Jul 23 · at FK Vojvodina (A)4-1
- May 24 · v FC Utrecht (H)0-0
- May 24 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-1
- May 21 · v FC Groningen (H)2-0
- May 17 · at SC Heerenveen (A)0-0
FK Vojvodina
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Jul 26 · at FK Crvena zvezda (A)1-3
- Jul 23 · v AFC Ajax (H)1-4
- Jul 19 · v OFK Beograd (H)4-0
- Jul 16 · at Ferencváros TC (A)0-3
- Jul 9 · v Ferencváros TC (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | AFC Ajax | FK Vojvodina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 1-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.