Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Oct 10 · 19:00 · AFC Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: AFC Ajax win · 75%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 75% for the home win. The market says 73%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Ajax75%73%+3
OursMarket
Draw15%16%−1
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen10%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 25% | 27% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Ajax
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 19 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
- Sep 15 · v Willem II Tilburg (H)5-1
- Sep 12 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)5-1
- Sep 5 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)1-3
- Aug 30 · at SC Telstar (A)4-0
NEC Nijmegen
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 20 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)1-1
- Sep 17 · at Juventus (A)0-5
- Sep 12 · at SC Cambuur (A)0-3
- Sep 8 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · v Feyenoord (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | AFC Ajax | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.