Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Aug 16 · 14:45 · AFC Ajax vs SC Heerenveen
Likeliest: AFC Ajax win · 55%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Ajax55%66%−11
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+3
OursMarket
SC Heerenveen23%15%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 68% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 85% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 34% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 82% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Ajax
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Aug 13 · at Shelbourne (A)2-2
- Aug 9 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-0
- Aug 6 · v Shelbourne (H)3-1
- Jul 30 · v FK Vojvodina (H)4-1
- Jul 23 · at FK Vojvodina (A)4-1
SC Heerenveen
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Aug 9 · v FC Twente (H)1-0
- May 21 · at FC Utrecht (A)2-3
- May 17 · v Ajax (H)0-0
- May 10 · at NAC Breda (A)0-2
- May 3 · at FC Volendam (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | AFC Ajax | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.