Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 6 · 18:00 · AFC Ajax vs Shelbourne
Likeliest: AFC Ajax win · 57%
A 25% draw. The market says 8%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Ajax57%89%−32
OursMarket
Draw25%8%+17
OursMarket
Shelbourne18%3%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 73% | −21 |
| Both teams score | 40% | 50% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 97% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 11% | +32 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 92% | −17 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 97% | −21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Ajax
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Jul 30 · v FK Vojvodina (H)4-1
- Jul 23 · at FK Vojvodina (A)4-1
- May 24 · v FC Utrecht (H)0-0
- May 24 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-1
- May 21 · v FC Groningen (H)2-0
Shelbourne
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 2 · at Waterford FC (A)0-1
- Jul 30 · at Nõmme Kalju (A)1-2
- Jul 23 · v Nõmme Kalju (H)5-2
- Jul 3 · v Dundalk FC (H)2-1
- Jun 27 · at Sligo Rovers (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | AFC Ajax | Shelbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.