Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Tue, Sep 15 · 18:00 · AFC Ajax vs Willem II Tilburg
Likeliest: AFC Ajax win · 82%
A tight one: we make it 82% for the home win. The market says 80%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Ajax82%80%+2
OursMarket
Draw9%12%−2
OursMarket
Willem II Tilburg8%8%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81% | 77% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 92% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 18% | 20% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 91% | 88% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 91% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 3.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Ajax
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 12 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)5-1
- Sep 5 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)1-3
- Aug 30 · at SC Telstar (A)4-0
- Aug 27 · v FC Sion (H)5-3
- Aug 20 · at FC Sion (A)4-2
Willem II Tilburg
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 11 · at AZ Alkmaar (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Excelsior (H)0-3
- Aug 30 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-4
- Aug 8 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | AFC Ajax | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 0-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.