Premier League (England) · Sat, Jan 3 · 17:30 · AFC Bournemouth vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 46%
A 27% home win. The market says 15%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Bournemouth27%15%+12
OursMarket
Draw27%21%+7
OursMarket
Arsenal46%64%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 58% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 36% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 85% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 79% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 19% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Bournemouth
DrawDrawDrawLossDraw
- Dec 30 · at Chelsea (A)2-2
- Dec 27 · at Brentford (A)1-4
- Dec 20 · v Burnley (H)1-1
- Dec 15 · at Manchester United (A)4-4
- Dec 6 · v Chelsea (H)0-0
Arsenal
WinWinWinWinWin
- Dec 30 · v Aston Villa (H)4-1
- Dec 27 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-1
- Dec 20 · at Everton (A)1-0
- Dec 13 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-1
- Dec 10 · at Club Brugge (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | AFC Bournemouth | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.