Premier League (England) · Sat, Feb 7 · 15:00 · AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: AFC Bournemouth win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 35%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Bournemouth45%35%+10
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−2
OursMarket
Aston Villa31%38%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 62% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 65% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 48% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Bournemouth
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Jan 31 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)2-0
- Jan 24 · v Liverpool (H)3-2
- Jan 19 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Jan 10 · at Newcastle United (A)3-3
- Jan 7 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-2
Aston Villa
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Feb 1 · v Brentford (H)0-1
- Jan 29 · v Salzburg (H)3-2
- Jan 25 · at Newcastle United (A)2-0
- Jan 22 · at Fenerbahçe (A)1-0
- Jan 18 · v Everton (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | AFC Bournemouth | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.