Premier League (England) · Tue, Mar 3 · 19:30 · AFC Bournemouth vs Brentford
Likeliest: AFC Bournemouth win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 38%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Bournemouth46%38%+8
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−3
OursMarket
Brentford31%36%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 64% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 62% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 51% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Bournemouth
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Feb 28 · v Sunderland (H)1-1
- Feb 21 · at West Ham United (A)0-0
- Feb 10 · at Everton (A)2-1
- Feb 7 · v Aston Villa (H)1-1
- Jan 31 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)2-0
Brentford
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Feb 28 · at Burnley (A)4-3
- Feb 21 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-2
- Feb 16 · at Macclesfield (A)1-0
- Feb 12 · v Arsenal (H)1-1
- Feb 7 · at Newcastle United (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | AFC Bournemouth | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.