Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 6 · 15:00 · AFC Bournemouth vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Bournemouth28%30%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−3
OursMarket
Chelsea48%44%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 40% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Bournemouth
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Dec 2 · v Everton (H)0-1
- Nov 29 · at Sunderland (A)2-3
- Nov 22 · v West Ham United (H)2-2
- Nov 9 · at Aston Villa (A)0-4
- Nov 2 · at Manchester City (A)1-3
Chelsea
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Dec 3 · at Leeds United (A)1-3
- Nov 30 · v Arsenal (H)1-1
- Nov 25 · v FC Barcelona (H)3-0
- Nov 22 · at Burnley (A)2-0
- Nov 8 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | AFC Bournemouth | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.