Premier League (England) · Sun, May 3 · 13:00 · AFC Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: AFC Bournemouth win · 39%
A 34% away win. The market says 19%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Bournemouth39%58%−19
OursMarket
Draw27%23%+3
OursMarket
Crystal Palace34%19%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 57% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 56% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 81% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 42% | +19 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 77% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 76% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Bournemouth
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Apr 22 · v Leeds United (H)2-2
- Apr 18 · at Newcastle United (A)2-1
- Apr 11 · at Arsenal (A)2-1
- Mar 20 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
- Mar 14 · at Burnley (A)0-0
Crystal Palace
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Apr 30 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)3-1
- Apr 25 · at Liverpool (A)1-3
- Apr 20 · v West Ham United (H)0-0
- Apr 16 · at Fiorentina (A)1-2
- Apr 12 · v Newcastle United (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | AFC Bournemouth | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-7-0 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-7-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.