Premier League (England) · Tue, Dec 2 · 19:30 · AFC Bournemouth vs Everton
Likeliest: AFC Bournemouth win · 52%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Bournemouth52%44%+8
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−4
OursMarket
Everton24%28%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 49% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 56% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 61% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Bournemouth
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Nov 29 · at Sunderland (A)2-3
- Nov 22 · v West Ham United (H)2-2
- Nov 9 · at Aston Villa (A)0-4
- Nov 2 · at Manchester City (A)1-3
- Oct 26 · v Nottingham Forest (H)2-0
Everton
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Nov 29 · v Newcastle United (H)1-4
- Nov 24 · at Manchester United (A)1-0
- Nov 8 · v Fulham (H)2-0
- Nov 3 · at Sunderland (A)1-1
- Oct 26 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | AFC Bournemouth | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.