Premier League (England) · Wed, Apr 22 · 19:00 · AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United
Likeliest: AFC Bournemouth win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Bournemouth45%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Leeds United28%27%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 55% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 58% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 63% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Bournemouth
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Apr 18 · at Newcastle United (A)2-1
- Apr 11 · at Arsenal (A)2-1
- Mar 20 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
- Mar 14 · at Burnley (A)0-0
- Mar 3 · v Brentford (H)0-0
Leeds United
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Apr 18 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-0
- Apr 13 · at Manchester United (A)2-1
- Apr 5 · at West Ham United (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Brentford (H)0-0
- Mar 15 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | AFC Bournemouth | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-6-0 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 2-7-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.