Premier League (England) · Sat, Jan 24 · 17:30 · AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Likeliest: AFC Bournemouth win · 43%
A 43% home win. The market says 25%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Bournemouth43%25%+17
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Liverpool33%51%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 62% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 49% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 75% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 33% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Bournemouth
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Jan 19 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Jan 10 · at Newcastle United (A)3-3
- Jan 7 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-2
- Jan 3 · v Arsenal (H)2-3
- Dec 30 · at Chelsea (A)2-2
Liverpool
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Jan 21 · at Olympique Marseille (A)3-0
- Jan 17 · v Burnley (H)1-1
- Jan 12 · v Barnsley (H)4-1
- Jan 8 · at Arsenal (A)0-0
- Jan 4 · at Fulham (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | AFC Bournemouth | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.