Premier League (England) · Tue, May 19 · 18:30 · AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 41%
A 33% home win. The market says 23%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Bournemouth33%23%+9
OursMarket
Draw27%23%+4
OursMarket
Manchester City41%54%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 65% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 64% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 46% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 77% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 77% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 30% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Bournemouth
WinWinDrawWinWin
- May 9 · at Fulham (A)1-0
- May 3 · v Crystal Palace (H)3-0
- Apr 22 · v Leeds United (H)2-2
- Apr 18 · at Newcastle United (A)2-1
- Apr 11 · at Arsenal (A)2-1
Manchester City
WinDrawWinWinWin
- May 16 · at Chelsea (A)1-0
- May 13 · v Crystal Palace (H)3-0
- May 9 · v Brentford (H)3-0
- May 4 · at Everton (A)3-3
- Apr 25 · v Southampton (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | AFC Bournemouth | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-6-0 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
AFC Bournemouth form·Manchester City form·Head-to-head record