Premier League (England) · Fri, Mar 20 · 20:00 · AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Manchester United win · 37%
A 37% home win. The market says 30%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Bournemouth37%30%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Manchester United37%44%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 64% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 70% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 41% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Bournemouth
WinDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Mar 14 · at Burnley (A)0-0
- Mar 3 · v Brentford (H)0-0
- Feb 28 · v Sunderland (H)1-1
- Feb 21 · at West Ham United (A)0-0
- Feb 10 · at Everton (A)2-1
Manchester United
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Mar 15 · v Aston Villa (H)3-1
- Mar 4 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-1
- Feb 23 · at Everton (A)1-0
- Feb 10 · at West Ham United (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | AFC Bournemouth | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-7-0 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
AFC Bournemouth form·Manchester United form·Head-to-head record