Premier League (England) · Wed, Jan 7 · 19:30 · AFC Bournemouth vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: AFC Bournemouth win · 58%
A 58% home win. The market says 44%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Bournemouth58%44%+14
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur20%29%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 71% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 56% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 60% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Bournemouth
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Jan 3 · v Arsenal (H)2-3
- Dec 30 · at Chelsea (A)2-2
- Dec 27 · at Brentford (A)1-4
- Dec 20 · v Burnley (H)1-1
- Dec 15 · at Manchester United (A)4-4
Tottenham Hotspur
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Jan 4 · v Sunderland (H)1-1
- Jan 1 · at Brentford (A)0-0
- Dec 28 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-0
- Dec 20 · v Liverpool (H)1-2
- Dec 14 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | AFC Bournemouth | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
AFC Bournemouth form·Tottenham Hotspur form·Head-to-head record