Premier League (England) · Sat, Nov 22 · 15:00 · AFC Bournemouth vs West Ham United
Likeliest: AFC Bournemouth win · 54%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Bournemouth54%57%−3
OursMarket
Draw21%24%−3
OursMarket
West Ham United25%19%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 54% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 81% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 43% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 75% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Bournemouth
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Nov 9 · at Aston Villa (A)0-4
- Nov 2 · at Manchester City (A)1-3
- Oct 26 · v Nottingham Forest (H)2-0
- Oct 18 · at Crystal Palace (A)3-3
- Oct 3 · v Fulham (H)3-1
West Ham United
LossLossLossWinWin
- Nov 8 · v Burnley (H)3-2
- Nov 2 · v Newcastle United (H)3-1
- Oct 24 · at Leeds United (A)1-2
- Oct 20 · v Brentford (H)0-2
- Oct 4 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | AFC Bournemouth | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
AFC Bournemouth form·West Ham United form·Head-to-head record