National League (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · AFC Fylde vs Scunthorpe United
Likeliest: AFC Fylde win · 53%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Fylde53%53%0
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
Scunthorpe United24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Fylde
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 3 · at Southend United (A)1-3
- Sep 29 · v Carlisle United (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · at Boston United (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Altrincham (H)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Harrogate Town (A)2-1
Scunthorpe United
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 29 · at Barrow AFC (A)0-3
- Sep 26 · v Hartlepool United (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · at Hornchurch (A)0-1
- Sep 16 · v Boreham Wood (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Sutton United (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | AFC Fylde | Scunthorpe United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 3-0-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.