Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:00 · AFC Wimbledon vs Barnet
Likeliest: AFC Wimbledon win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 70% for both teams to score. The market says 59%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Wimbledon39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Barnet36%34%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 58% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 59% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 2.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Wimbledon
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Sep 26 · at Cambridge United (A)1-1
- Sep 17 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Doncaster Rovers (H)1-0
- Sep 7 · at Bromley (A)2-0
- Sep 2 · at Burton Albion (A)1-4
Barnet
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 19 · v Fleetwood Town (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Accrington Stanley (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Chesterfield (A)3-3
- Sep 1 · at Exeter City (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Cheltenham Town (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | AFC Wimbledon | Barnet |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.