League One (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town
Likeliest: Mansfield Town win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
We make it 54% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Wimbledon33%36%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+2
OursMarket
Mansfield Town37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 53% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Wimbledon
DrawDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-5
- Oct 10 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)1-2
- Oct 6 · v Barnet (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Cambridge United (A)1-1
- Sep 17 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)0-0
Mansfield Town
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 15 · v Oxford United (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Bromley (H)2-1
- Oct 6 · at Port Vale (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Burton Albion (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Huddersfield Town (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | AFC Wimbledon | Mansfield Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.