League One (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe Wanderers
Likeliest: Wycombe Wanderers win · 44%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AFC Wimbledon27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+3
OursMarket
Wycombe Wanderers44%43%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 41% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AFC Wimbledon
DrawDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-5
- Oct 10 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)1-2
- Oct 6 · v Barnet (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Cambridge United (A)1-1
- Sep 17 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)0-0
Wycombe Wanderers
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Notts County (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · v Luton Town (H)0-1
- Oct 6 · v Bristol Rovers (H)4-1
- Sep 26 · v Reading (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Wigan Athletic (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | AFC Wimbledon | Wycombe Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.