Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · Agropecuario Argentino vs Colegiales
Likeliest: Agropecuario Argentino win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Agropecuario Argentino42%44%−2
OursMarket
Draw34%31%+3
OursMarket
Colegiales24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 34% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 45% | 41% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Agropecuario Argentino
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 10 · at Quilmes Atlético Club (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · v Ferrocarril Midland (H)0-0
- Sep 27 · at Atlanta (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · at San Martín de Tucumán (A)0-3
Colegiales
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Tristán Suárez (H)0-0
- Oct 4 · at Güemes (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at San Martín de San Juan (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Nueva Chicago (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Agropecuario Argentino | Colegiales |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-0 | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.