Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sat, Oct 17 · 15:30 · AIK vs Göteborg
Likeliest: Göteborg win · 38%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AIK34%37%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+3
OursMarket
Göteborg38%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 75% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AIK
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v IF Brommapojkarna (H)5-6
- Sep 20 · at Halmstads BK (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · v Mjällby (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Västerås SK (H)1-4
- Sep 7 · at Malmö FF (A)0-0
Göteborg
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 9 · v Västerås SK (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at IF Brommapojkarna (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Halmstads BK (H)2-1
- Sep 7 · at Mjällby (A)4-1
- Sep 2 · at BK Olympic (A)5-0
| Last 10 games | AIK | Göteborg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-7 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.