Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:00 · AIK vs IF Brommapojkarna
Likeliest: AIK win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AIK49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
IF Brommapojkarna25%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AIK
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 20 · at Halmstads BK (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · v Mjällby (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Västerås SK (H)1-4
- Sep 7 · at Malmö FF (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Hammarby (H)3-2
IF Brommapojkarna
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v Göteborg (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · at Hammarby (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v IF Elfsborg (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at GAIS (A)0-4
- Aug 27 · at Falu BS FK (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | AIK | IF Brommapojkarna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 0-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.