Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Nov 30 · 19:00 · Ajax vs FC Groningen
Likeliest: Ajax win · 44%
A 35% away win. The market says 26%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ajax44%48%−5
OursMarket
Draw22%26%−4
OursMarket
FC Groningen35%26%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 74% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 52% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 65% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ajax
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Nov 25 · v Benfica (H)0-2
- Nov 22 · v Excelsior (H)1-2
- Nov 9 · at FC Utrecht (A)1-2
- Nov 5 · v Galatasaray (H)0-3
- Nov 1 · v SC Heerenveen (H)1-1
FC Groningen
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Nov 23 · v PEC Zwolle (H)2-2
- Nov 9 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)0-2
- Nov 2 · v FC Twente (H)1-1
- Oct 30 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-5
- Oct 25 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Ajax | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.